Excuses

Excuses

It would seem that a variety of audio/visual materials are needed to sustain multilingual development during early childhood. CDs and videos alone will not be adequate. Substantial and continuing interaction with native speakers is probably also important. A controlled study would be helpful.

Even if a study shows that favorable results were obtained, critics will not be easily convinced. The following is a series of criticisms which can be anticipated:

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There was no control group. -- The group was small; statistically insignificant. -- The investigators were not properly qualified. -- The study used a special prescreened group.-- The qualifications of the group varied greatly. -- Other factors influenced the results. -- Not a rigorous study; lacked scientific discipline; a larger study is needed. -- Only a preliminary result; the long term results are unclear.-- The testing procedures used were not standard procedures. -- Scripted classes were not used (no lesson plans) therefore it is questionable whether the results are repeatable. -- The influence of the parents (bilingual and/or multilingual) probably biased the results. -- The non-school environment was not well documented. -- They (the children) tend to mix (confuse) their languages.

----------------------- "Publication Bias" (from Wikipedia) -----------------------

"Publication bias occurs when the publication of research results depends on their nature and direction."

Positive results bias, a type of publication bias, occurs when authors are more likely to submit, or editors accept, positive than null (negative or inconclusive) results. A related term, "the file drawer problem", refers to the tendency for those negative or inconclusive results to remain hidden and unpublished. Even a small number of studies lost in the file drawer can result in a significant bias.

Outcome reporting bias occurs when several outcomes within a trial are measured but these are reported selectively depending on the strength and direction of those results. A related term that has been coined is HARKing (Hypothesizing After the Results are Known).

According to researcher John Ionnidis, negative papers are most likely to be suppressed:

1. when the studies conducted in a field are smaller

2. when effect sizes are smaller

3. when there is a greater number and lesser preselection of tested relationships

4. where there is greater flexibility in designs, definitions, outcomes, and analytical modes

5. when there is greater financial and other interest and prejudice

6. when more teams are involved in a scientific field in chase of statistical significance.

Ionnidis further asserts that "Claimed Research Findings May Often Be Simply Accurate Measures of the Prevailing Bias"

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